“The history of the world is but the biography of great men,” wrote the historian Thomas Carlyle in 1841. This so-called Great Man Theory of History has long since been discredited. Most historians now believe that kings and presidents have relatively little impact on ordinary people’s lives. Demography, climate and technology matter much more.

But the Great Man Theory of History lives on in journalism. Read the news these days and you’d think that Donald Trump and his entourage were the key forces shaping the future. Likewise, the coming French election is being reported worldwide on the presumption that the next president will change history. This focus on personalities instead of trends is fun but misleading. Just as the smartphone probably did more than Barack Obama to shape the past few years, so tech and not Trump should shape the next few.

The debate about the future is currently monopolised by the unanswerable question of whether robots will take away human jobs. But so much else will happen. Imagine that Trump rules for eight years, as is entirely feasible. In that time, life will change. By 2024, virtual reality will be mainstream. Put on your VR glasses and you will be able to step (virtually) into your boss’s office in another country. Just as the internet changed the mating game, so will VR. You can meet your new date virtually in a Hawaiian beach bar or in outer space (though old-fashioned exchanges of fluids will still require physically leaving the house). New forms of entertainment will emerge: soon you will be able to stand (virtually) on FC Barcelona’s field watching Lionel Messi dribble towards you or see the late Laurence Olivier star in a new film.