The Financial Times was more right than wrong about 2016 — superficially, at least. Of the 16 predictions on this page a year ago, nine or 10 came good (depending on whether or not the popularity of Pokémon Go means that 2016 was “the year that virtual reality takes off”).

Some predictions stand out: Roula Khalaf was prescient on Bashar al-Assad’s awful resilience, John Paul Rathbone had the timing of Dilma Rousseff’s downfall just right, and James Kynge nailed renminbi depreciation (he’s calling it the other way in 2017 — perhaps our most out-of-consensus forecast for next year).

But we got the big ones wrong. The UK did not vote to remain in the EU, Hillary Clinton did not win, and that is what mattered most. Anyone who believes that what matters to history are not the steady trends but the sudden seismic shocks received powerful confirmation for their view in 2016. So readers might look at our 2017 prognostications with disdain.