The ultimate impact of Donald Trump’s announced intention to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal is yet to be seen. But it is clear that it will give China an opening to assume economic leadership in Asia and may be treated by leaders across the region as a sign of America’s retreat from the responsibilities of world leadership.
The global progress of American economic and political values has been the dominant trend in human events since the end of the second world war. The US and its allies prospered greatly from it and are immeasurably more secure than in the prewar world, when we tried to isolate ourselves with, among other follies, protectionist trade policies.
To be sure, the changes wrought by liberalised international trade have not all been positive. Together with technology-driven productivity gains, it has contributed to job losses in industries and communities where manufacturing was once the main support of a thriving middle class. The US is still a leading manufacturer but fewer Americans are employed in those industries. That trend will continue whether or not we sign another trade agreement because productivity gains will continue. Most lost manufacturing jobs were made obsolete by technology innovations.