When leaders from throughout the Asia-Pacific region met in Lima last weekend, one topic dominated the gathering: Donald Trump’s threat to ditch the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

The president-elect says he will begin his administration by serving notice of US withdrawal from the trade deal, which he labels a “disaster for our country”. His plans have stoked fears throughout the region that the era of Washington’s hegemony over trade, and its geopolitical influence more generally, is coming to an end. In Lima, a clearly delighted China signalled it was more than happy to take over as the main driver of trade policy.

But while Mr Trump could do serious damage with another of his threats — huge import tariffs on China and Mexico — history suggests the importance of bilateral or regional deals in shaping world trade is often overstated. Nor does it appear that trade agreements are necessarily a cause rather than a consequence of geopolitical influence.