Russia sees itself as part of a threesome that determines the fate of the world. That message was both subtly and bluntly put at the annual Valdai Club gathering last week in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

The club is where the country’s senior officials and strategists discuss their views with foreign commentators. It is propagandist in intent. Yet, although the message that “Russia is back” is insistent, the club is home to a range of views that reveals vigorous internal debate in Russia, as well as possibilities for change.

The three global hegemons are the US, China and Russia, in descending order of military and economic strength. Russia is a member of the trio because of its military power, spending on which has been protected even as stubbornly low oil prices and western sanctions have pushed the country into recession.