What is going to happen to the Chinese economy in the coming five years? This is one of the most important questions for those interested in the world’s prospects. Participating in this year’s China Development Forum offered a fascinating window into how the country’s policymakers view the challenges ahead. Insight came from the speeches and papers prepared by scholars working at the Development Research Center of the State Council.

The country confronts four principal challenges. The first is how to transform its pattern growth, quantitatively and qualitatively. The second is how to manage the inevitable slowdown in underlying growth relatively smoothly. The third is how to manage China’s interface with the world economy. The last is how to manage its domestic political evolution.

In the first place, China has accepted a slowdown in the trend rate of growth. In the period covered by the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020), this is forecast to be no lower than 6.5 per cent a year. While that would be fast by world standards, it would be slow by China’s, at least until recent years (see chart).