The financial turbulence that gripped China and the rest of the world in the past few weeks has blown over for now. Last weekend, with the renminbi stable again, Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor, broke a lengthy silence to insist that there was no basis for devaluation, that the country’s reserves were adequate, and that China had no need for tighter capital controls. These assurances have worked for the time being but the causes of China’s large capital outflows could manifest themselves at any time. China has come up against a problem known as the “impossible trinity”. Resolving it, either by means of a devaluation of the renminbi or tighter capital controls, will have far-reaching consequences.
過(guò)去數(shù)周沖擊中國(guó)和全球其他國(guó)家的金融動(dòng)蕩已暫時(shí)平息。一周多之前的那個(gè)周末，隨著人民幣匯率再次企穩(wěn)，中國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)周小川打破長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的沉默，堅(jiān)決表示人民幣沒(méi)有持續(xù)貶值基礎(chǔ)，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備充足，同時(shí)中國(guó)不需要加強(qiáng)資本管制。這些安撫言論就目前而言是管用的，但中國(guó)隨時(shí)可能出現(xiàn)一些因素導(dǎo)致大規(guī)模資本外流。中國(guó)已經(jīng)遇到一個(gè)名為“三元悖論”(impossible trinity)的問(wèn)題。無(wú)論是通過(guò)貶值人民幣還是加強(qiáng)資本管制來(lái)解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題，都將產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響。