If Guy Debelle was a hedge fund trader, he might have made a killing this week. Three days ago Mr Debelle – a top official at Australia’s central bank – predicted that markets were heading for wild volatility, since investors were naive about structural risks. A “sizeable” number of them, he observed, probably presumed that they could exit their positions before any sell-off. “History tells us that this is generally not a successful strategy,” he warned. “The exits tend to get jammed unexpectedly and rapidly.”
假如蓋伊?德貝爾(Guy Debelle)是一名對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理，那么本周他已經(jīng)大賺了一筆。三天前，這名澳大利亞央行的高官預(yù)言，由于投資者對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)缺乏認(rèn)識(shí)，市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)劇烈的波動(dòng)。他表示，數(shù)量“可觀的”投資者很可能認(rèn)為，他們能在發(fā)生任何拋售前退出自己的頭寸。“歷史告訴我們，這一策略總體上是不成功的，”他警告稱，“出口往往很快就會(huì)變得出人意料的擁擠。”