The coming year will be a moment of truth for Barack Obama’s administration. Having won an emphatic re-election victory in November 2012, he proceeded to make a mess of the first year of his second term.

If 2014 is anything like 2013, then Mr Obama will be facing the longest lame-duck presidency in modern history, exceeding even that of George W Bush. But if he can stem the blood loss and make the most of a recovering US economy, there is still a chance he could convert his second term into something productive. Unfortunately the chances are tilted to the former.

The most important factor is largely out of Mr Obama’s control. Most economists expect the US in 2014 will finally hit escape velocity after four years of mediocre growth. But they have mis-forecast before and may well have done so again.