The season of goodwill has made way for the new year torrent of predictions. Most are quickly forgotten – mercifully so, given the hit rate of the commentariat. Today’s world spins too quickly for the sharpest crystal-ball gazer. A better way of looking at what lies ahead is to chart some of the underlying forces shaping the global landscape. The outline that emerges is one of rising prosperity and opportunity, and of diminishing security.
表達善意的季節（指圣誕節——譯者注）已經讓位于新年的預測潮。大多數預測很快就被人忘掉了——幸好如此，因為預測者的準確率低得可憐。當今世界的節奏太快，就連最敏銳的水晶球占卜者也跟不上。研究未來的更好方式是梳理那些塑造著全球格局的基本力量。由此得出的大格局是人們日益富足和充滿機遇，但安全狀況不斷下降。
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