Cataloguing China’s economic risks has become a popular parlour game. In the past decade, a steady drumbeat of warnings has predicted imminent collapse. Rising state and local government debt, a weak financial system and multiplying inefficiencies in the economy certainly pose big risks. The reforms needed to maintain growth and improve its quality have been painfully slow.

Despite these problems, the size of China’s economy and the per capita income of its citizens have quadrupled in the past 15 years, pulling millions out of poverty. Still, the country cannot outrun its problems forever. Unbalanced growth has led to widening inequality and environmental degradation.

China’s leaders often talk of the need for broad reforms but their actions are, critics say, plodding and hypercautious. This issue is in the spotlight as expectation builds that next month’s party plenum in Beijing will yield a range of reforms. Some warn, however, that such hopes will be disappointed.