Developed country equity and credit markets snapped back quickly after the Federal Reserve tapering wobble a few weeks ago. From the crow’s nest, markets have accepted that Fed policy normalisation will be gradual, become more confident about economic prospects, and put to one side earlier concerns about the risk of deflation. At the coalface, though, things look more nuanced, and suggest that Fed tapering is much less of a risk than rising concern over a ‘fin de siècle’ moment in emerging markets, especially China, which could spark new deflation fears.
數(shù)周前，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)宣布將逐步削減資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家股市和信貸市場(chǎng)隨之暴跌，但之后迅速收復(fù)失地。乍一看來(lái)，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)接受了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策將會(huì)逐步正常化的事實(shí)，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景變得更有信心，并將早先對(duì)通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的擔(dān)心擱置一旁。然而實(shí)際上，形勢(shì)似乎更為微妙，看起來(lái)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)逐步削減資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，遠(yuǎn)比不上新興市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入“頹敗”時(shí)刻的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，尤其是可能引發(fā)新的通縮恐慌的中國(guó)。