Almost three years ago, at the World Economic Forum’s “Summer Davos”, in Tianjin, I heard a Republican politician say that the US would be in hyperinflation within two years. I was stunned. Yet a large number of people believe that hyperinflation is coming. If the US is in trouble, so, surely, is the UK. Is there anything in such predictions? The answer is: possibly, in the very long run. At present, however, the risk is that inflation may be too low, not too high. Paradoxically, that increases inflation risk in the long run.
將近三年前，在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)之天津“夏季達(dá)沃斯”上，我聽(tīng)到一位共和黨政客說(shuō)，美國(guó)將會(huì)在兩年內(nèi)陷入惡性通脹。我感到非常吃驚。然而，很多人都認(rèn)為惡性通脹正在到來(lái)。如果美國(guó)有麻煩，那么英國(guó)也在劫難逃。那么這樣的預(yù)言有沒(méi)有道理呢？答案就是：從超長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，有可能。但目前的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是通脹過(guò)低而不是過(guò)高。而矛盾的是，正是這種情形增加了長(zhǎng)期的通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。