Back in January, investors could be forgiven for hedging their bets when weighing the chances that China could surprise with a recovery against Japan’s ability to reflate its economy after two decades of disappointment. By the end of January, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Topix were neck-and-neck, up 5 per cent. Then the mood changed. Anyone still betting equally on the two will have given up more than a third of their one-fifth return on Japan covering Hong Kong losses. No surprise that there are anecdotal reports of investors selling the latter to fund Tokyo trades. But switching from China to Japan is simplistic.
今年1月份，一些投資者權衡了中國經濟出現令人驚喜復蘇態勢的概率，并與日本經濟在經過令人失望的二十年后重整旗鼓的可能性加以對比，據此對沖自身所持投資頭寸。這種做法在當時情有可原。至1月末，香港恒生指數(Hang Seng)和日本基準股指東證指數(Topix)的走勢并駕齊驅，均上漲5個百分點。隨后，市場情緒發生了變化。任何仍在日本和香港股市等量下注的投資者，都將從在日本股市實現的超過20%的收益中拿出三分之一，用于填補其在香港市場所受損失。難怪有基于傳聞的報道稱，一些投資者正賣出港股頭寸，挪出資金以交易日本股票。但是，從中國市場轉向日本市場，仍是一種過于簡單化的處理方式。