A habitual western estimation of China charts its uninterrupted ascent to global hegemony. It will soon overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. Fast forward a few decades and it will assume the mantle of the pre-eminent power. Some time in between, its political system will make the transition to something resembling democracy.

It is a beguilingly simple thesis, one particularly attractive to the western business executives who have joined the China gold rush. Yet what strikes me whenever I visit Beijing is that the more strident China’s leaders sound on the global stage, the more insecure they seem at home.

China is certainly making its presence felt internationally. The hide-your-strength strategy of Deng Xiaoping has made way for an unabashed assertiveness that unsettles neighbours and worries the US. Long-standing maritime disputes in the East and South China seas have become military flashpoints. The Chinese blogosphere overflows with calls for the country’s leaders to teach old enemies a lesson.