It is one of the truisms of the eurozone crisis: the reluctance of Germany to foot the bill for saving the single currency. Few of us actually enjoy picking up the tab for others. In the case of Germany, however, the stance of “not one more cent for Europe” is short-sighted and runs counter to their actual interests. The truth is that if the euro fails, Germany’s middle class will pay the highest price.
A good part of German middle- class prosperity derives from the dividends of labour market and structural reforms made in the first decade of this century. These helped counter the kind of hollowing out of the country’s industrial base that the US and Japan have experienced. Today manufacturing in Germany still accounts for more than 25 per cent of the economy. In the US it has fallen to a little more than 12 per cent; in Japan it stands at about 20 per cent, down from 35 per cent in the 1970s.
What never seems to be debated in Germany is how the industrial foundation of the country’s prosperity would be threatened if the euro fails. If that happened, Germany would be forced to return to the Deutschmark – which would almost certainly soar in value, causing the competitiveness of manufacturing to plummet.