Anybody locked in a room for long enough with Jean-Claude Juncker will eventually capitulate. If Angela Merkel is the euro’s banker, the prime minister of Luxembourg is its enforcer. The famously relentless Mr Juncker has triumphed once again. Greece’s international creditors have finally agreed measures to reduce its debt ratio to 124 per cent of gross domestic product by 2020 and to provide more financing. Time has been bought, cans have been kicked, as usual. Once again, though, the deal has not removed the possibility of a Greek exit from the eurozone.
Forget the strings attached to the resumption of the bailout. The important thing is that if the debt ratio target is to be met, it will require a phenomenal economic turnround. Unfortunately, economic growth is the one thing that neither Mr Juncker nor anyone else – least of all the Greek government – has been able to deliver. Deutsche Bank estimates that the Greek economy in 2014 will be a fifth smaller than was envisaged by the International Monetary Fund in May 2010, when Athens got its first rescue package.
The inevitability of this week’s agreement is priced in – the Greek 10-year bond yield has fallen by about a third since August. Greek bank shares fell 10 per cent yesterday, however. That sector may be the biggest casualty of the train wreck. Its enforced restructuring to create three main banking groups – which should be a positive signal to investors – has instead become an indicator of increased convertibility risk: nobody wants to buy Greek assets as long as an exit from the euro is even remotely possible.