The radicals in academic finance would revamp the basic metric of economic performance. The familiar statistics on gross domestic product would be coupled with an index of financial risk-taking, so that the usual focus on growth would be tempered by a measure of the danger that growth might suddenly implode. This month of all months, one craves an equivalent risk-weighting to reflect political uncertainty. Amid the marathon reality show of the American elections, the tense theatre of the Chinese transition and the anarchic agitprop of eurozone politics, non-risk-weighted economic forecasts verge on irrelevance. Even with the US election behind us, this is not about to change.
激進(jìn)的金融學(xué)者將改革衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)的基本指標(biāo)：除了人們熟知的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)以外，還將加上一個(gè)衡量金融冒險(xiǎn)程度的指標(biāo)。由此，人們通常對增長的關(guān)注，將被一個(gè)衡量增長突然崩潰風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的指標(biāo)所調(diào)和。本月就特別需要一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)指標(biāo)來反映政治上的不確定性：美國馬拉松式的大選真人秀、中國氣氛緊張的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層換屆、再加上歐元區(qū)政界大肆鼓吹無政府主義，讓非風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測幾乎變得毫無價(jià)值。盡管美國大選已經(jīng)結(jié)束，但這種情況在短時(shí)間內(nèi)不會(huì)改變。