I spent last week in Scotland. It proved the worst week for Scottish nationalists since they took control of government there.

The Scottish National party government plans a referendum in the second half of 2014 on separation from the UK. But the core vote for independence is about 25 per cent of the electorate. The challenge for nationalists is to at least double that number. Extreme discontent such as a global economic crisis might do it. Otherwise they must persuade the complacent and fearful middle that under independence things would be just the same, only better.

That is a hard proposition to articulate, even more to sell. The attempt alienates many of your supporters. For 50 years after Irish independence, the country’s development was held back by a romantic vision of a self-sufficient utopia. Only after Ireland joined the EU in 1973 did it come to terms with the realities of life as a small country in an interconnected world.