The most overlooked cause of the economic weakness in the US and Europe is what we call the “global currency wars”. If all currency intervention were to cease, we estimate that the US trade deficit would fall by $150bn-$300bn, or 1-2 per cent of gross domestic product. Between 1m and 2m jobs would be created. The eurozone would gain by a lesser but still substantial amount. Countries that were engaged in intervention could offset the impact on their economies by expanding domestic demand.
在導致美歐經(jīng)濟疲弱的原因中，最未引起重視的一條就是我們所稱的“全球匯率戰(zhàn)”。我們估計，如果所有的匯率干預行動都停下來，美國的貿(mào)易赤字將減少1500億至3000億美元，相當于其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的1%至2%。此外，還將創(chuàng)造出100萬至200萬個就業(yè)崗位。歐元區(qū)也將獲益，雖然其貿(mào)易赤字減少幅度和新增就業(yè)崗位不及美國，但仍將非常可觀。那些以往干預匯率的國家，可通過擴大內(nèi)需來平衡停止干預匯率對其經(jīng)濟造成的影響。