When Wen Jiabao announced this year’s annual growth target of 7.5 per cent in March, most analysts assumed the Chinese premier was being unduly modest and that the world’s second-largest economy would actually expand much faster.
The Chinese economy has consistently outperformed annual targets over the past decade, averaging close to 11 per cent growth over that time, despite the 2008-09 global financial crisis. But with activity cooling much more than expected in recent months, the 7.5 per cent target is starting to look ambitious.
Most economists still believe China is in the middle of a gradual and manageable “soft landing” slowdown but some are beginning to wonder whether the economy may be in for a much rougher time.
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