The job as chancellor is a lonely one. You are often the bearer of bad news. Frequently you are depicted as Scrooge. So I do have some sympathy for George Osborne’s position. But it is now three and a half years since the collapse of Lehmans and if I had thought then that Britain would this week plunge into a double-dip recession – and be engulfed in the longest downturn for a century – I would have been appalled. The truth is that austerity is not working.

Almost exactly two years ago austerity was launched as the sure way to recovery. Today that central plank on which the coalition was formed is splintering. The government has defined itself by this central purpose. The evidence is that it is failing, badly. Like first world war generals, it is sticking with an orthodoxy that is not working. The question is whether it will accept the need to change tack.

So where are we now? Our economy has shrunk 4.3 per cent since 2008. Conventional wisdom says it will bounce back to its historic trend rate of growth of about 2.5 per cent. The Office for Budget Responsibility, which uses a similar model to the Treasury, forecasts a return to growth of a very respectable 3 per cent in three years’ time. The chancellor needs that growth to make his projected borrowing figures stand up.