Recession? When a 110-pound chocolate Easter egg fetches ￡7,000 in a London charity auction, one might well ask, what recession? Chocolatiers, sadly, do not have that luxury. Chocolate confectionery demand is usually resilient to economic conditions, advancing at 2-3 per cent a year. But there are signs that even chocoholics are tightening their belts this time around. Volumes in core western European markets dipped 3 per cent, year-on-year, between September and January, according to public market data. Global volumes were flat.

Still, while chocolate-makers watch Easter sales anxiously, there are some brighter trends. Raw material costs have either eased or stabilised over the past six months: cocoa bean prices, for example, are down by a quarter after a good crop in west Africa. Demand for premium chocolates in some Asian markets – tiny by comparison with Europe and the US – is expanding. And in an industry still peppered with family-owned businesses – think Ferrero or Neuheus – consolidation is slowly occurring. Brands such as Godiva or Guylian, as well as household names like Cadbury’s, are now part of broader food groups.

That is one reason why investors seeking pure chocolate exposure face limited opportunities. Zurich-based Barry Callebaut, which supplies chocolate and chocolate products to branded manufacturers, depends on its ability to handle the industry better than its customers. But one-off costs caused first-half profits to dip this week, putting the shares on a forward multiple of 14 times. Much more pricey is fellow Swiss group,Lindt & Sprüngli, which sells heavily into continental Europe, but has growth potential in the US, UK and Asia: on a 24 times forward multiple, its shares are quite a bite. And for one share in Lindt, one could buy 991 Gold Bunnies. Which could give new meaning to short-term investing.