The nail-biting is so familiar. For days, markets have fixated on political posturing in Athens, weighing up whether Greece will agree to sufficient additional austerity to allow its lenders to advance a second rescue package. Now, the odds seem to be rising, helping the euro gain ground against the dollar. In particular, unconfirmed suggestions that €60bn-ish of Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank could be swapped with the European Financial Stability Fund (which would then lend Greece additional funds to repurchase them) have encouraged optimism. The mechanics may look complex, but a swap arrangement could improve the chances that an accompanying “voluntary” debt restructuring (or PSI deal) between Greece and its private sector creditors will proceed. The ECB, which bought the bonds at a discount, had been insisting on repayment in full.
焦急地等待又開始了——這已成為家常便飯。幾日以來，市場一直密切關(guān)注希臘政壇的態(tài)度，以衡量希臘究竟會不會接受債主們發(fā)放第二筆紓困貸款組合的條件——進(jìn)一步的緊縮舉措。如今，希臘接受該條件的可能性正在變大，促使歐元兌美元匯率開始回升。特別是有未經(jīng)證實的消息稱，歐洲央行(ECB)可能將持有的600億歐元左右的希臘債券與歐洲金融穩(wěn)定安排(EFSF)的債券進(jìn)行置換——EFSF之后將額外借給希臘一些資金，用來回購這些債券——這令市場情緒更加樂觀。置換機(jī)制可能看上去有些復(fù)雜，但假如成功，希臘與其私人部門債權(quán)人之間的“自愿”債務(wù)重組計劃（或稱私人部門參與計劃(PSI)）將更有可能取得進(jìn)展。用折扣價購買了希臘債券的歐洲央行，此前一直堅持要獲得全額償還。