Between 2007 and 2012, the Chinese economy will expand by close to 60 per cent. Emerging Asia as a whole will grow by almost 50 per cent. Over the same period, economies of high-income countries will grow by a mere 3 per cent. Who can doubt that the world is undergoing a profound transformation? The speed of convergence in incomes per head is driving extraordinary divergence in growth between incumbents and newcomers. Moreover, this has continued despite the weak growth of high-income countries discussed last week. Huge shocks, such as those of 2008, do affect the growth rates of emerging economies. The same would probably be true if the eurozone imploded. But the effect does not seem to last (see charts).
2007年至2012年間，中國經(jīng)濟增長幅度將接近60%。新興亞洲總體增幅將接近50%。同期，高收入國家的經(jīng)濟增幅將僅為3%。誰還能懷疑世界正在經(jīng)歷一場深刻的轉(zhuǎn)型？高收入國家與新興經(jīng)濟體之間人均收入的趨同速度，正驅(qū)使雙方的經(jīng)濟增長呈現(xiàn)出驚人的差距。這種趨勢持續(xù)下來，盡管如上周討論的，高收入國家實現(xiàn)了微弱的增長。巨大的沖擊，比如2008年的沖擊，確實會對新興經(jīng)濟體的增速產(chǎn)生影響。如果歐元區(qū)解體了，也很可能會產(chǎn)生同樣的影響。不過，這種影響似乎不會持續(xù)下去（見圖表）