The death of Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s ruthless, cognac-loving dictator, should be a watershed. For years the so-called Dear Leader has played a nuclear-armed game of Russian roulette with his southern neighbour and the international community, while starving and terrorising his own population. Succession could be the chance to begin rebuilding not just the devastated economy, but stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

But don’t count on it. Kim’s 28-year-old heir, Kim Jong-eun, was virtually unknown before he was promoted to four-star general last year in a hastily-prepared succession. Unlike his father, who had 14 years to prepare for power - during which time he was crucially put in charge of the military - Kim Jr is unlikely to have the same power base from which to lead a crumbling state where 25 per cent of the people are starving.

The risks are that the transfer of power will be fraught. Mr Kim may want to prove his mettle with intensified aggression towards the south. Given the North’s nuclear arms programme, this could have devastating consequences. Or he could become a pawn for competing interests, if those who were meant to be his mentors - his aunt and her husband – are not sufficiently influential. North Korea’s strict isolation from the outside world means that no one really knows the exact state of play.