At first glance, the outcome of last week’s European Union summit looks historic. European states have agreed a plan that appears to be an important step towards fiscal and political union. Britain has refused to go along – and looks isolated and possibly on its way out of the EU.

If all this could be taken at face value, it would indeed be big stuff. But the outcome of the Brussels meeting is much more likely to end up as a footnote in the history books than a bold new chapter.

Markets and voters are increasingly refusing to obey the grand pronouncements issued by EU leaders at their ever more frequent crisis summits. Add to that the growing tensions between EU members, which go well beyond the isolation of Britain, and you have a formula for continuing confusion and disunity – rather than the decisive moment that so many commentators think they have witnessed.