Big Brother, can you spare a dime? Eurozone democracies, short of cash and devoid of ideas and leadership, are racing to tap communist China, which has $3,200bn of foreign exchange reserves. Other emerging markets have huge forex reserves, too, and are also being touted as possible investors. But Beijing is the first port of call. China has a big interest in saving the eurozone, which is its biggest trading partner. But the eurozone leadership’s vanishing credibility means the bloc is playing with a very weak hand.
Chinese officials can be expected to ask smart questions about the souped-up bail-out fund, the European financial stability facility. Though its size has been increased from €440bn to €1,000bn, this is a bit of an illusion, at least until details about how to reach the larger figure are finalised. China has invested in EFSF bonds issued to bail out Ireland and Portugal. But new investment might be riskier, with fewer guarantees to comfort the lenders and a smaller prospect of ultimately being repaid.
More to the point, China’s creditworthiness is improving while that of the eurozone collectively is deteriorating. China is rated double A minus (higher than Italy) by Standard & Poor’s and A plus by Fitch Ratings. The eurozone has six triple A members, accounting for nearly two thirds of the EFSF’s firepower but with increasingly burdensome guarantee obligations to their less creditworthy partners. The EFSF is also triple A rated, but its SPVs may not be. Beijing would rightly be cautious about pouring cash from its state coffers into highly structured instruments, perhaps demanding conditions.