The world could do with some glad tidings at the moment, to cope with a global economic crisis and turmoil in the Middle East. Unfortunately, the return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin does not qualify as good news.

International co-operation is badly needed for both economic and political reasons, but Mr Putin’s now inevitable return to the presidency in March 2012 will strengthen the forces of nationalism in Russia. At a time when the world’s liberal democracies are struggling economically and losing self-confidence, the new-old Russian president will bolster the authoritarian camp in global politics.

If Russian foreign policy becomes more introverted and nationalistic in 2012, it may form part of a global trend. The US and France are going through presidential elections next year, which will limit the time their leaders can devote to world affairs, and the scope of their actions. The top Chinese leadership will also change next year, which could well see Chinese foreign policy take on a more strident tone. The turmoil in the Middle East is likely to continue throughout 2012, as is the financial crisis within the European Union.