As is typical of recoveries from recessions that result from the bursting of big credit-fuelled asset price bubbles, the recovery in the US from the 2008-09 recession and associated financial crisis is very weak and fragile. A full two years after the National Bureau of Economic Research called the end of the recession, the level of gross domestic product is still just below its pre-crisis peak (reached at the end of 2007); the Federal Reserve is still operating deeply unconventional monetary policy; and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around the remarkably low level of 2 per cent. Many investors are asking if the US is “going the way of Japan” in the 1990s, an economy that is often said to have “lost not one but two decades.” I think not.
和其它所有從由信貸催生的巨大資產價格泡沫破裂而導致的衰退中復蘇的經濟體一樣，美國從2008-09年的衰退及金融危機中復蘇得非常乏力和脆弱。在美國國家經濟研究局(NBER)宣告衰退結束整整兩年后，美國國內生產總值(GDP)仍低于危機前的峰值水平（即2007年底的水平）；美聯儲(Fed)仍在奉行極其非傳統的貨幣政策；10年期美國國債收益率仍在2%的超低位附近徘徊。很多投資者懷疑，美國正重蹈上世紀90年代“日本的覆轍”，人們經常會說，日本經濟“失去的不止10年，而是20年。”但我并不這么認為。