Anyone who thought the controversial decision by Moody’s to downgrade Portuguese debt this week was about Portugal missed the point. It was really about Germany.
Sure, the decision featured warnings that Lisbon had a tough row to hoe in order to meet debt and deficit targets in its €78bn ($109bn) bail-out programme.
But the real message from Moody’s is the same one being delivered to European capitals by the financial markets: if Germany is going to insist that private bondholders bear a chunk of the pain for a new Greek bail-out, we must assume that private bondholders are going to have to pay up for other bail-outs, too. So, dear investor, abandon ye peripherals while ye may.
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