Of all the Arab dictators, none has reacted to his people’s call for freedom with more unbridled viciousness than Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. His fight for survival has shattered the illusions of na?fs who thought him a reformer. It may soon confound realists who think that for all his flaws, Mr Assad is preferable to the chaos that could engulf Syria in his absence. The outside world must prepare for an unravelling that is advancing by the day.

Cracks are spreading through the three pillars on which Mr Assad’s tyrannical regime rests – the Alawite community, the army and an economy strong enough to give Syrians something to lose.

The minority Alawites face the greatest threat to their supremacy in decades. They will rally around the Assad clan if they think it can win, but will not go down with the Assads if they see their position better secured by abandoning the ruling clan. The Alawites – indeed the Assad family itself – have been split before. Under sufficient pressure, they will split again.