Economists warning against inflation in the developed world are a little like owners of small cars who worry about speeding tickets – they would be only too pleased if their economy could go that fast.

There are good reasons to fear inflation. The exceptionally low interest rates in place since the credit crisis should be directly inflationary. So should the fast rise in commodity prices.

And by the beginning of this month, markets seemed to have made up their mind that inflation was an imminent danger. The European Central Bank had tightened rates once; silver was at a 30-year high; and inflation expectations had started to take off. Two weeks ago, the break-even rate of US inflation over the next 10 years, derived from the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market, touched 2.7 per cent, its highest since 2006. Equivalent German expectations peaked at 2.3 per cent.