There has been almost no winter this year in Afghanistan, only the lightest dusting of snow on the mountains round Kabul and no rain for the fertile farmlands of the south. The mild weather has brought no lull in the fighting, which in parts of the south-west and the north has seen serious reverses for the Taliban. Around Kandahar and in the south-western Helmand province much of the leadership in the field has been killed, captured or forced to flee into Pakistan, or, in a few cases, Iran. Yet, as hopes rise in western military bases in Afghanistan, the capitals of the nations supporting Isaf (the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force) descend into ever deeper gloom.

Having accused generals of “a conspiracy of optimism” in getting us into the mire in Iraq and Afghanistan, pundits are indulging in a frenzy of pessimism. That appears to be institutional and endemic, and comes from the UK prime minister’s office down. “(David) Cameron wants out”, is what senior officers hear from all sides – and sooner than is being publicly advertised.

For the generals, particularly irritating is the way in which London tries to micromanage operations in Afghanistan. Half a dozen ministries and offices second- guess ground operations down to the most tactical level. These include the prime minister’s office, the National Security Council, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Ministry of Defence, and the Permanent Joint Headquarters, who believe they should have a say – all from 5,000 miles away.