As the world’s political and business elites gather in Davos, the dominant economic and political trend is clear. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the divergent fortunes of the western and Asian powers have become an overarching theme. The really big question, however, is whether this is just a cyclical blip, or the start of a truly historic long-term trend.

Both viewpoints will have their supporters in Davos. Those who predict the continuing dominance of the western world will argue that the US economy is already beginning to recover and that it has consistently surprised sceptics with its technological prowess and economic resilience.

As for Europe, some believe that the eurozone crisis has already peaked. They argue that market confidence is returning, that the German economy – the core of the eurozone – is in rude health and that the European Union is beginning to put in place the reforms that will make the EU more resilient and unified in future.