2011 will be a hard year for globalisation. 2008 showed that our global era can bring faster growth, but faster declines too – as a crisis made in America spread quickly. 2009 saw the benefits of a global response, but in 2010 divisions returned. Asian growth bounced back, but advanced countries were mired in high unemployment. 2011 will see further divergences. In spite of evidence that Keynesian policies worked (China being the pre-eminent case) and austerity led to predictable contractions, much of Europe is pushing austerity anyway. The moment of coordinated macropolicies aimed at recovery is a faint memory.
對于全球化而言，2011年將是艱難的一年。2008年證明了全球化時代既能創造更快的增長，也能帶來更猛的衰退——“美國制造”的危機迅速蔓延至全球。在2009年，人們體會到了全球性應對措施的好處，但2010年分歧重現。亞洲經濟增長迅速回升，但發達國家仍深陷高失業率的泥沼。2011年兩者間的差異將繼續加大。盡管有證據表明，凱恩斯主義的政策行之有效（中國就是最突出的例證），而財政緊縮會導致可預見的經濟萎縮，但歐洲大部分國家仍在推行緊縮政策。旨在謀求經濟復蘇的協同宏觀政策已成為一個模糊的記憶。