It seems that no television report on rising oil prices is complete without a shot of a frustrated American motorist filling his minivan and a pundit’s warning of a magical tipping point beyond which the global economy will begin reeling. Perhaps we are missing the point.

Our collective thinking on oil prices has been shaped by the supply shocks of the 1970s and the smaller one in the early 1990s that helped precipitate recessions. The fact that WTI crude just topped $91 and Brent $94 a barrel, near their post-Lehman highs, is understandably causing concern. After all, the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, published two months ago, already saw a slight deceleration in global growth next year based on a crude basket price of $78.75. According to econometric models, we should shave one or two-tenths of a point off that now, ceteris paribus.

But not everything is equal. Crude is as much a barometer of economic activity as an impediment to it, as prices are driven by incremental demand in countries such as China – which just hit a fresh import record. Non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries first consumed more energy than officially developed ones in 2007. They represent much of the forecast growth in demand. By 2030 the US Energy Information Administration says they will consume nearly two-thirds more than OECD countries.