If you are seeking an image for Asian growth, you could do worse than the giant holes being dug in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. From these great pits comes the iron ore used for making the steel that forms the latticework of Chinese skyscrapers and the girders of Indian bridges. The faster Asia grows, the deeper these Australian holes will get.
Over the past decade, Australia’s exports to Asia have climbed from around 40 per cent of the total to no less than 72 per cent. That means Australia has unequivocally hitched its fortunes to Asia’s economic bandwagon. Paul Keating, former prime minister, alluding to Canberra’s strategic relationship with the US and its economic one with Asia, compares Australia’s position to working the piano’s pedals in Washington but playing the keys in Asia. Fortunately for Australia, the keys are not only Chinese. Of the 72 per cent of Asia-bound exports, China accounts for 25 per cent (against just 6 per cent a decade ago), Japan a hefty 19 per cent, South Korea 10 per cent and India 6-8 per cent, quadruple the level of 10 years ago. Fortunately too, the export boom is more than just about iron ore. There is also a huge demand for coal and liquefied natural gas which – when half a dozen massive projects get going – could add 1.5 percentage points of growth in gross domestic product to an economy already humming along at 3 per cent.
Even that underestimates the true picture. In nominal terms, adjusted for a GDP deflator that reflects booming commodity prices, the economy is growing at a blistering 9.6 per cent a year, according to Morgan Stanley. Australia’s terms of trade – a measure of the price of imports compared with exports – have not been better since the last great boom at the end of the 19th century. The country, says Stephen Roberts, chief Australia economist at Nomura, “is going through a once-in-a-century boost in trade”.