Alarmist concerns about impending currency wars were temporarily moderated by the G20 finance ministers’ pre-summit meeting in Gyeongju, where they agreed to work towards limits on the current account deficits and surpluses of their balance of payments. But they flared up again with the launch of a new round of quantitative easing – QE2 – by the US, triggering fears of dollar devaluation and floods of hot money into emerging markets. Is it peace or war now on the currency front? Is the Gyeongju “agreement” just another pious wish without practical implications? What does it mean for the G20 summit?
20國集團(G20)財長們在峰會前舉行的慶州會議，暫時緩解了杞人憂天者對于匯率戰爭即將來臨的擔憂。G20財長們一致同意，力爭對經常賬戶赤字和國際收支盈余設限。但隨著美國推出新一輪的定量寬松(QE2)——并由此引發人們對美元貶值和熱錢涌入新興市場的擔心——上述擔憂再度抬頭。眼下匯率方面是一派和平還是烽煙四起？慶州“協議”只是又一個沒有實際意義的虔誠愿望嗎？對G20峰會而言，這又意味著什么？