BP is running out of options. With at least a month to go before the relief well to stop the leak in the Gulf of Mexico is completed, and with the cost of the clean-up above $3bn, boosting its balance sheet is more important than ever. If the relief well fails, BP is doomed. But the likelihood of a failure should be remote: relief wells usually work.
That does not lessen BP’s strategic dilemma, however. How urgent is its need for cash and how should it be raised? BP has earmarked $10bn of disposals, but these take time. Credit markets put up a “keep out” sign on June 23, when Fitch Ratings cut BP’s credit rating from double A to triple B. One reason for this downgrade was that the balance of costs that BP faces is skewed to the near term. In any case, BP’s debt is trading in even more speculative territory, so debt funding is not realistic. The only other option is to raise equity.
BP’s market value has collapsed since the Deepwater Horizon accident on April 20. That alone must have strategic investors eyeing its assets. Seeking an investor such as a sovereign wealth fund, along the lines of what Barclays did early in the global financial crisis, is one solution and one that BP can control. Oil-hungry China must be one source – perhaps including a long-term supply agreement.