Most politicians, noted Harold Macmillan, are undone by developments no manifesto or focus group can anticipate. The tragedy of Kevin Rudd, deposed on Thursday as Australian prime minister, was that there were no “events.” The economy barrelled through the global financial crisis, thanks in large part to China's ferocious appetite for its resources, and an oligopolistic banking system that never had to chase yield in strange places. Then, while politicians elsewhere were squaring up to their banks, Mr Rudd decided to go one better, and take on the miners. By this act of hubris, he becomes a historical curio: the only Australian prime minister to have fought just one election.

Finding ways to slow the exploitation of coal and metals is not, in itself, bad policy. But so bungled was the communication, and so obviously populist the timing – the Labour party, with strongholds of support in regions unblessed by minerals, must hold an election by April – that Mr Rudd's credibility never recovered. Having described the industry's threats of pulling investments as “balderdash” and “bunkum,” he was wrong-footed when they did so. Spending A$39m on an advertising blitz might have been justifiable, had the prime minister not effectively outlawed the practice two years earlier, describing tax-funded ads as “a cancer on democracy.”

Despite some shrill claims from the miners, there is little evidence that Australia has been de-rated by the resource row. The Aussie dollar is the second best-performing G10 currency this month; compared to the S&P 500, Australian equities are more expensive now, on a price/book basis, than three-year average valuations. Still, Julia Gillard, the new prime minister, is in a tricky spot. Diluting a tax designed to raise A$9bn could leave big holes in budgets. Yet the miners, having buried one premier, will not settle for anything less.