It is easy to get over--excited about China. When bulls aren't predicting near infinite-growth and competing to proclaim earlier and earlier dates by which China's economy will become the world's largest, bears are proclaiming the country on the verge of collapse. In the past two months informed consensus seems to have shifted from the former view to the latter. To some extent this represents a welcome dose of reality. In spite of outstanding growth rates in 2009, China nonetheless has serious structural problems that were actually exacerbated by the quality of last year's growth. Many observers seem now to be waking up to this fact.
人們很容易對中國興奮過度。一旦看多者停止預測近乎無限的增長，不再競相宣布一個比一個更早的中國成為世界第一大經濟體的日子，看空者就開始宣稱中國已瀕臨崩潰。過去兩個月，有識之士的共識似乎已經從前一種觀點轉變成后者。這在一定程度上體現了現實，令人可喜。盡管2009年實現了驕人的增長，但中國仍然存在嚴重的結構性問題，而去年的增長質量實際上加劇了這些問題。許多觀察家如今似乎剛從夢中驚醒，開始正面這個事實。