What would have happened during the financial crisis if the euro had not existed? The short answer is that there would have been currency crises among its members. The currencies of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain would surely have fallen sharply against the old D-Mark. That is the outcome the creators of the eurozone wished to avoid. They have been successful. But, if the exchange rate cannot adjust, something else must instead. That “something else” is the economies of peripheral eurozone member countries. They are locked into competitive disinflation against Germany, the world's foremost exporter of very high-quality manufactures. I wish them luck.
假如歐元不存在，那么本次金融危機期間會發生什么？簡言之，有些歐元區成員國會爆發貨幣危機。希臘、愛爾蘭、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙的貨幣，肯定會兌原先的德國馬克大幅貶值。這種結果正是歐元區締造者們希望避免的。他們獲得了成功。不過，如果匯率不能調整，那么一定有別的東西做出調整。這個“別的東西”就是歐元區外圍成員國的經濟。相對于全球高品質制品的頭號出口國德國，這些國家受困于競爭性通脹減緩(competitive disinflation)之中。祝它們走運！