Some good news: Germany, France and Japan recorded output growth in the second quarter of 2009. These rises in output are cheering: they represent work created and profits made. Equity markets have also started to rediscover a little of their swagger: the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 now sit at levels not seen since October of last year.

But as a posse of central bankers – corralled this weekend at the Federal Reserve's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming – were keen to point out, it is not safe to blithely assume that a recovery is now well underway: monetary policy must remain stimulative for the foreseeable future.

The second-quarter gross domestic product results were good, but their significance should not be overstated. Falls in output during and after the autumn financial panic were bound to overshoot. These recent rises, therefore, may not indicate recovering demand, so much as output rising to find its real floor.