Are you expecting a “V” shaped recovery this summer? Or do you anticipate a scenario more like a “U” or a “W”? That is the question I have been asked repeatedly this month, as the debate about “green shoots” roars on.

Personally, though, I suspect that none of the letters in the Roman alphabet quite captures what is most likely to go on. To be sure, the last year might seem to correspond to the start of a “V”, “U” or “W”.

Last year, the financial system clearly fell off a cliff, like the downward slope of a pen. But this year, some form of reprieve got underway, marking a seeming turning point. Most notably, in the real economy, the data is looking a touch more optimistic, not least because western companies are restocking, after slashing their inventories late last year. And in the financial sphere, investors appear to have spotted the “floor” to last year's crash – and started to jump back into the markets again, rediscovering their appetite for risk.