The slide of the S&P 500 10-year return into negative territory in 2008 (to -1.4 per cent annualised) will have shocked investors who believe in the “buy and hold” approach to stocks. It has also unleashed a flood of commentary proclaiming the superiority of “active trading” strategies, as we read on these pages last week. Nothing could be further from the truth. Buying and keeping stocks is now more likely to produce good results than at any time in the last 35 years. It is irresponsible to suggest that investors could do better with “real time” trading. The evidence to the contrary is overwhelming.
2008年，標準普爾500指數10年平均回報率滑入負值（折合年率為-1.4%），這一消息會令那些信奉“買進并持有”策略的投資者震驚。它同時還引發了大量評論，宣揚“積極交易”策略的優越性，正如我們近來在這些專欄中讀到的那樣。但事實決非如此。目前，長期持股帶來良好回報的可能性，比過去35年中的任何時候都要大。認為投資者進行“實時”交易能獲得更好回報，這種說法是不負責任的。有大量證據表明，情況恰恰相反。