The reserves rose by $40.4bn (€30.9bn, ￡27.7bn) in the fourth quarter to $1.946 trillion, the government said this week, well below the total trade surplus and foreign direct investment over that period, indicating a substantial outflow of short-term capital.
As China is recording large trade surpluses, reserves could still rise this year towards $2,000bn but economists believe the period of explosive growth is over and reserves might even start to decline.
Logan Wright, an analyst at the Beijing office of Stone & McCarthy, who tracks Chinese reserves, said: “China's six-year liquidity cycle may be coming to an end.”
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