The American consumer is a case in point. Real personal consumption expenditures are on track for rare back-to-back quarterly declines in the second half of 2008, at roughly a 3.5 per cent average annual rate. Since 1950 there have been only four instances when real consumer demand fell for two consecutive quarters. Declines will exceed 3 per cent in both quarters for the first time. Never before has there been such an extraordinary capitulation of the American consumer.
Similar extremes are evident elsewhere. Europe and Japan have joined the US in the first synchronous G3 recession of the post-second-world- war era. Nor has the developing world been spared. While most big developing economies should avoid outright contractions in overall output, sharp deceleration is evident in China, India and Russia. Hong Kong and Singapore – Asia's two prosperous city states – are both in recession. Moreover, reminiscent of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, the currencies of South Korea, Indonesia and India are under severe pressure. As the commodity bubble implodes, a similar boom-bust pattern is unfolding in Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the Middle East.
Crises invariably trigger finger-pointing. This one is no exception. Global observers have been quick to blame the US, arguing that it's all about the excesses of Wall Street and America's subprime fiasco. Some would take it even further and condemn the freewheeling model of market-based capitalism. Let the record show, however, that while the US certainly made its fair share of mistakes, the rest of the world was more than happy to go along for the ride.