Maybe. But it does not have to be like that. The president-elect has one thing going for him. The crisis he inherits is one of recession and deflation. The difference between a crisis of deflation and a crisis of inflation is this: governments that need to reduce inflation have to do nasty things; governments that want to end deflation have to do nice things. It is the difference between buying at the top of the market and buying at the bottom.

The cure for inflation is tighter money, tighter budgets and more unemployment. The cure for deflation is a mix of interest rate cuts, more spending and lower taxes.

No one should underestimate the viciousness of the recession likely to engulf America and spread round the world in 2009. Unemployment is rising sharply, companies will go bust in large numbers and we shall probably see further forced consolidation in the financial services industry.