Looking beyond immediate events, the biggest structural imbalance in the global economy remains the US current account deficit – the US has been living beyond its means, financed by emerging markets savings, for the best part of a decade. Should this change then the dollar will have to fall against emerging currencies. Local currency debt is one of the best, if not the best, hedges against structural dollar weakness. Should developed world turmoil worsen, dollar weakness is the top feature of the most bearish global scenarios. Investors wanting to insure against this risk should allocate to emerging local currency debt.
透過眼下發生的事件放眼來看，全球經濟最大的結構性失衡仍是美國的經常賬戶赤字。十年來的大部分時間里，美國一直入不敷出，靠新興市場的儲蓄提供資金。倘若這種局面發生變化，美元兌新興市場貨幣匯率必將走軟。本幣債務是規避美元結構性疲軟的最佳對沖工具之一——如果說并非唯一的最佳對沖工具。假如發達世界的混亂加劇，全球陷入最為慘淡的境況，那么，美元疲軟將是其中最顯著的特征。投資者要防范這種風險，應該配置一些資金到新興市場的本幣債務。